“Maybe it won’t reach Milei, but without Milei you can’t”. That seems to be the panorama revealed by the survey released this Saturday by the study of federico gonzalezover 1,680 cases of national scope, a survey in which the libertarian legislator appears as the politician with the greatest flow of individual support, above 18%, 5 points more than Cristina Kirchner and much more than Horacio Rodríguez Larreta (9.1), Patricia Bullrich (8.8) and Mauricio Macri (7.3)the possible candidates of the PRO and Together for Change.
Although the poll numbers indicate that the leader of La Libertad Avanza He is still far from “inspiring” the mountain of votes he would need to get from the Frente de Todos y Juntos por el Cambio to come to power, too It is obvious that without the votes of those from Milei in a second round, there is no possible way to reach the Casa Rosada. Whether it is Juntos or Kirchnerism, both coalitions will use relentlessly in the runoff the support of many initial supporters of the libertarian.
Measuring by coalitions, González’s work awards Juntos por el Cambio 32.1% voting intention, while the ruling party reached 27.7%. Then follows Milei with 18.4%, and the remaining percentage is divided between those who say they would vote for Peronism, not K (3.6%), the left (3.1%) and others (2.3%) or in white (4.7%). Those who were not defined still exceed 8 percent in the survey.
Within this context, in JvC the podium with the highest voteability headed by the head of the Buenos Aires government Horacio Rodriguez Larreta with a 42.7% positive image, closely followed by the president of the PRO, patricia bullrichwith 41.9%, Mary Eugenia Vidal has 33.6% and the president Mauricio Macri has 32.5%. In this list are with a high degree of negative image Macri himself (62.5%), a number that at least in the study papers would make his hypothetical ‘second half’ complicated.
A survey places Massa as the winner in the generals but second in the PASO, and loses in the second round
As far as the ruling party is concerned, sergio masa is positioned above other candidates for a 33.2% “votable” image, behind him appears the vice president Cristina Kirchner with 30.9%, the governor of PBA Axel Kicillof with 29% and the president Alberto Fernandez in the end against 25.1%. Of course, in that list, when you look at the numbers in red the balance for the possible pro-government candidates is hard: Massa has 55.5% of respondents who do not vote for him and is the least punished, but Alberto Fernández reaches 69.9% rejection and Cristina reaches 67.7%. Kicillof is not doing much better, with 64.6% saying they would not vote for him.
In addition, it is worth mentioning that on the general scale miley occupies the third position of positive image behind the head of the Buenos Aires Government and Bullrich, with a level of positive voting of 40.3%.
What would happen in the STEP
With a view to possible Primary, Open, Simultaneous and Mandatory (PASO) elections, including in a first scenario with Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner as a candidate, Together for Change is located in the Federico González poll above the Frente de Todos with a difference of 4 points: 34% against 30.02%. Followed by La Libertad Avanza, which achieved 18.1% there.
In a second scenario, with the vice president offstage, the result is also repeated with 4 points of advantage, leaving JxC with 32.7% and FdT with 28.7%. In this case, Milei’s percentage rose slightly to 18.6%.
As regards the internalIn a first scenario with the participation of former presidents Mauricio Macri and CFK, the opposition is led by Rodríguez Larreta, with 9.1% and the president of the PRO with 8.8%, while the former president receives 7, 7% votes.
Martín Tetaz: “We must turn the election of the Province into a ballot with Javier Milei, taking the result of the PASO”
In the case of the ruling party, the vice president is conveniently at the forefront of space with 13.1%, followed by Massa, with 7.5%, and further behind is President Alberto Fernández, who would only obtain 4.0%. .
in a second scenario without Macri and without CFK, the Buenos Aires head of government and Bullrich exchanged places, with the head of the PRO leading with 12.2%, compared to 10.9% of the Buenos Aires leader. While on the opposite sidewalk without CFK then Massa rises 14.7%, well above the 5.7% received by Fernández.
What would happen in the general
Already facing what would be the general elections, as mentioned, according to the poll Together for Change would win by a difference of almost 4 points at the hands of Rodríguez Larretawho would receive 29.2% of the votes, against the 25.6% received by the Minister of Economy.
Behind both and with a wide distance from the rest of the candidates, would be located miley, with 22.4%. The poll shows that In that table, Milei would lack a little more than 3 points to aspire to the runoff. Conjecturing what would happen if Milei reached the ballot becomes an interesting exercise in imagination, because that hypothetical diaspora of Peronism would be forced to choose in their ideological antipodes.
In a second scenario, with Patricia Bullrich as candidate for Together for Change, the numbers are similar in terms of the difference, transmitting 30.5% of the votes against 26.9% for Massa. There, González’s poll shows Milei receding somewhat, 20.3%, showing that many libertarian voters would prefer Bullrich if she is the JxC card.
AS./HB
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