Is the time. The decisions that the main political spaces make these days will have repercussions in the coming years.
indefinitions. To begin with, the candidacy of Jorge Macri for the JxC primaries was defined, winner of the polls that were commissioned from the PRO. Neither the results nor the methodologies used (for example, how many cases were made and if they were in person or by telephone) were disseminated, so darkness also triumphed. But beyond these details, it is clear the specific weight that CABA has for autochthonous geopolitics, and what it means for the PRO, to continue governing its mother territory.
The presence of Jorge Macri at Rodríguez Larreta’s act, where he announced a late reduction in some taxes, resulted in implicit support for the presidential candidate in the PRO’s infernal internship. Despite the subsequent statements about the ex-president’s cousin not being present in the national primaries, it was a severe blow to the aspirations of Patricia Bullrich, who feverishly seeks support in every corner of the PBA, where it is also observed that the installation of Néstor Grindetti for governor is going very slowly. Looking at the panorama and the tacit agreement of Rodríguez Larreta with Mauricio Macri, Martín Lousteau will be wondering if it is not convenient for him to play outside in order to reach the almost certain ballotage. He did so in 2015, at an even more complex moment with what Macri’s rise meant, and he lost to Rodríguez Larreta-Santilli by just 55,000 votes.
In the sectors of the hard vote, the figure of Cristina falls very well and transfers that support
In search of the lost vote. In the Frente de Todos, after the act of May 25, it became clear (in case it ever wasn’t) that Cristina Kirchner will have the great organizing pen of the lists. This implied the promotion of the candidacy of Eduardo “Wado” de Pedro. In this way, hundreds of pollsters travel the country looking for the intention to vote for the Minister of the Interior, with the curiosity that the question is usually asked twice, once in a normal manner, and the second time to remind the respondent that he is Cristina’s candidate.
It is a problem, because among the sectors of the hard vote, his figure falls very well, and that transfer of votes is almost assured, but outside that group of around 12 to 15%, Wado’s name is received coldly.
The other side is that there is no one in the geography of the country who does not know Sergio Massa, or Daniel Scioli. The latter finds in his presidential feint, the distance from the political structures of Peronism. The task is complex, he has to find candidates in the provinces that will be voted on that day, 135 mayoral candidates, and more than a thousand aspiring councillors. It goes without saying that they need candidates for the 130 deputies at stake, the 24 senatorial seats and all the substitutes, always respecting the gender quota. Scioli could also wonder if in order to get into that mess it would not be simpler and more effective for him to break and make an alliance with Schiaretti and Urtubey. Curiously, this space, practically without lifting a finger, will have a 5% vote intention (mainly Córdoba). Based on this highly developed apparatus, the ambassador in Brazil could easily double that number and wreak historic havoc on the Front of All.
La Libertad Avanza began to take space among poor youth
Journey to a new electorate. The difficulties for an assembly of an electoral structure from scratch are also suffered by Javier Milei. Unlike the provincial elections, in the national and local elections that take place that day it is not possible to go with a short list. Provincial parties also have this problem. But beyond this, Milei made a really existing turn towards the liberal right these days, converted into the incorporation of Carlos Rodríguez and Roque Fernández as advisers and Diana Mondino as a candidate for deputy for CABA. They are people linked to CEMA (today Ucema). In fact, this house of studies was founded by Rodríguez himself, who has the personal characteristic of being very frontal in his positions, and even relativized some of Milei’s axioms, for example, the possibility of prompt dollarization.
Today, probably due to the setbacks of the last two governments, Milei clearly leads the vote intention counted by candidate. Two attributes that are fundamental when it comes to understanding the distribution of the new electorate arises from being or not in a situation of poverty, and the age of the voter, differentiated between those under 35 years of age and those over that age. From the intersection of the two dichotomous variables emerges the graph that can be seen where Together for Change dominates in its classic Non-Poor/Over 35 electorate.
Instead, FdeT becomes strong among the poor middle-aged. Milei begins his work dominating among young people from the middle and upper classes, but today he advances towards the poor under 35 (a terrain that was exclusive to Peronism) and also extends his border towards older people (up to 40 or 45 years old).
Should you tell the ‘truth’?
Together for Change has a high barrier to entry among poor sectors. The idea that rights (social assistance programs) will be exercised strongly penetrated here. The novelty is that La Libertad Avanza did begin to take space among poor young people, subtracting votes that were discounted as Peronists. This occurs up to a point leaving a disputed space.
The idea of adding someone young to the formula aims to recover votes that will be decisive. Something similar happens with people over 60 (retired or close to retiring). Here one clearly perceives the loss of the income sectors of those subtracting almost a complete social space from Kirchnerism, which becomes another vacant position in dispute. The last important law of the Fernández government was precisely the retirement moratorium, which beyond rhetoric seeks to win back the senior sectors of society, but the interviews indicate that there will be a great wave of abstention here.
JxC’s silver bullet to seduce these spaces is security, since they tend to suffer a greater number of insecurity events than others, especially in the suburbs of large cities.
The electoral chess pieces are in motion on a board that will have strong jolts.
*Sociologist (@cfdeangelis)
You may also like
