Survey: the most voted candidate in CABA and the surprising second

a new survey reveal who would be the most voted candidate in Together for Change in the Buenos aires city for the Elections 2023. The survey considers different scenarios if the drop in the candidacy of Mary Eugenia Vidal to the of Soledad Acuna. In addition, it shows a surprise candidate who could take second place for the first time.

This is a study carried out by Federico González and Associates between April 29 and May 1 from 1400 cases and an error level of +/-2.67. In this study, the distribution of votes favors the ruling party of Buenos Aires, where Jorge Macri Lead comfortable and Martin Lousteau appears second, more than ten points below.

Through a structured questionnaire, the consultant measured the voting intention of those candidates who have publicly expressed their interest in running. In the city of Buenos Aires, Together for Change garnered 49.5% intention, compared to 19.9% ​​for the front of all. The surprise is the 15.4% of Freedom Advancespulled by Ramiro Marra and the support of Javier Milei.

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luis zamora Self Determination and Freedom has 1% intention while the left front get 1.6% intent. As always, the key will be to watch where the votes expressed in blank or under the category “Don’t know”: between the two they add up to 12.8%.

But as mentioned before, the survey is given in a particular process of Together for Change, where its leaders try to order the space in view of the approaching date for the presentation of candidates. In this line, in the last hours it is guaranteed that the Buenos Aires Minister of Education, Soledad Acuna, he gets out of the race. And it is further said that Vidal would be the next to do so.

two opposing scenarios

The survey took those scenarios and conducted the study, which shows How are those votes distributed?

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Jorge Macri is the one who drives the most in both scenarios: the Buenos Aires minister and licensed mayor of Vicente López has an 18.3% intention, but without Vidal and Acuña it grows to 20.5%. In the case of Martín Lousteau, the candidate supported by Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, owns 8.3%, but with the distribution of votes It reaches a 9.9% intention.

In case Vidal drops, third place would go to Ricardo López Murphy, of United Republicans, which grew from 5.8% to 6.2%. In this scenario, the Buenos Aires Minister of Health fernan quiros appears fourth, goes from 4.3% to 6.2%. Graciela Ocaña, for her part, went from 2.9% intention to 3.5%. The other name of the United Republicans that appears in the study is that of Roberto García Moritán: he went from 1.3% to 1.8%.

In any case, the votes of Vidal and Acuña managed to be fully captured by the rest of Together for Change; that is, there is no leakage of votes towards the Frente de Todos, La Libertad Avanza or the rest of the spaces, which remained unchanged. But what does grow between one scenario and the other is the blank votewhich goes from 2.9% to 3.6%, while he does not know from 9.9% to 10.4%.

The stage without Vidal or Acuña.

“There is a clear winner, which is Jorge Macri. The difference he has with the rest is seen very clearly within the space. With the inmate in Together for Change I don’t understand why, if the number is that, the political analysis sees that there is something to solve, as if Lousteau were a candidate who is head to head with Macri or is growing“, pollster Federico González told PERFIL.

The official performance, libertarian and the left

According to the study published this Wednesday, May 3, the Frente de Todos has a 19.9% ​​vote intention in the city of Buenos Aires. The one who leads is santorowith 14.9% and four points below Macri, who is the one with the highest concentration of votes.

He is followed by the senator and advisor to the Magistracy mariano recalde, with barely 1.7% intention and Matías Lammens appears third with 1.2%. In the case of legislator Ofelia Fernández, she has 0.8%; the influencer Pedro Rosemblat 0.5%, Gisela Marchiotta 0.5% and Elizabeth Gomez Alcorta 0.4%

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“We have been consolidating that Leandro Santoro is the only one who measures the Frente de Todos, because he is the only one about whom there are no questions, because He doesn’t seem like a Cristinista or a Kirchnerista despite the fact that in the letter it may be,” González thought.

On the libertarian side, Ramiro Marra leads with 15.4% while very far, in second place, appears Carolina Di Baia with 0.3% of the Demos space. “Marra, although he is Milei’s candidate, he has his own flight because he is an influencer, he was a financial youtuber. He has his audience that is not from conventional media, the youth,” analyzed the pollster.

In the case of Luis Zamora, the candidate for Self-Determination and Freedom, owns 1% intention while in the Left Front Vanina Biasi and Alejandrina Barri have 0.3% intention each.

Survey in CABA
Two scenarios for the generals.

The comedian also appears in the poll Nito Artaza, from Cambio Popular, which recently announced its interest in competing. He has a 0.6% intention, five tenths more than Lucas Jaszewski, candidate for the Federal Republican Meeting, the space he leads Miguel Angel Pichetto.

Two scenarios for the generals

The study also traced two possible scenarios that could take place in the generals: the only variation that is established is in Together for Change, with Jorge Macri, on the one hand, and Martín Lousteau, on the other.

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In the first case, if the candidates are Macri, Santoro for the Frente de Todos and Ramiro Marra for La Libertad Avanza, the first gets 43.4% intention, the second 20.2% and the libertarian 17.9%.

Meanwhile, in the second scenario, Lousteau would get 41.2%, Santoro 20.7% and Marra 18.5%, from an electorate that perceives itself to be mainly on the right (30.2%)22.1% center and 13.9% left.


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