After a hot start to the year with 6% in January, and in line with the CPI for February, March will have six increases: transport, water, gas, private schools, prepaid and fuel. This will heat up inflation and will kick the wheel of the Government’s aspirations to converge to 60% for this electoral year, according to the Budget. To achieve this, from February to December the monthly variation of the price increase should be an average of 3.8%.
As announced by the Secretary of Energy, a charge by Flavia Royón, in March there will be a single increase in gas for the entire year. Increases in transportation and distribution will also be added to the increase in gas at the wellhead, for which the increase will correspond to 50% in the final bill, according to sources in the sector to PROFILE.
On the other hand, in relation to water consumption and following the gradual removal of the subsidy in the service that is borne by Aysa, around 984,000 users residing in middle areas will begin to pay the full rate.
Meanwhile, for those users who are in lower-middle areas, they will keep 15% in the final price of the bill. This segment corresponds to just over 1 million people.
In the third month of the year there will also be an increase in the value of fuel, which will be around 3.8% to be applied in mid-March. This is the last section contemplated in the agreement signed between the companies of the sector and Energy.
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In turn, a new fare update system began to apply in public transport. The value of the ticket for the bus and the train in the AMBA will be adjusted for inflation from March to December, that is, it will be agreed to the CPI of the previous period.
Along the same lines, the subway will also go up next month. According to the public hearings that took place at the beginning of February, the ticket will cost $58 and it will be the first increase in a staggered increase in four sections.
On the other hand, taking into account the health cost index, in the case of high-income users, prepaid will rise 7.66%. On the other hand, for affiliates with income below six minimum wages, they will have a 5.04% increase.
As for private schools, March will be the last month before the Government’s agreement with educational institutions that there will be some discomfort in the sector. It will be up to 16.38% and then 3.35% until June.
Meanwhile, rents will rise by almost 90% for tenants who will have the annual adjustment under the new law or will have to renew the contract.
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All these increases will add more inflationary pressure. “In this context of December, the Government’s goal of inflation of around 60% year-on-year seems extremely challenging, taking into account that to achieve it from February to December the monthly variation of the CPI should be an average of 3.8%”, said an Ecolatina report.
Also, another fact that reveals the difficulty of complying with what the Budget says regarding inflation is that the Treasury validates rates above 118%.
In turn, the consultant warned that for this year inflation of around 100% will also have 0% growth, which makes the electoral aspirations of the ruling party more complex.
On the other hand, the other front that the Government will have to face this year will ensure that the parallel currency does not trigger, which, if it is the case, will add more fuel to inflation.
“We are experiencing the highest inflation since 1991. This number is more worrying if we consider that regulated prices have lagged far behind the general CPI. In other words, we have pent up inflation. This is noticeable in several prices where the Government is the one that manages the adjustments, such as the official exchange rate, transportation rates, public service rates, health and combination,” said Eugenio Marí, chief economist of the Libertad y Progreso Foundation. .
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