Jorge Liottirenowned journalist, made reference to the place of Javier miley in politics, the chances that a relatively high percentage of the vote should receive and why are appropriate. “He is a candidate who grows when the country’s socioeconomic situation deteriorates,” said the political analyst in Fontevecchia modeby net tv and RadioProfile (FM 101.9).
Are there intimate or temporary enemies due to the electoral context?
At the start of this electoral year, we are seeing a discussion that does not only have to do with the candidacies in the two main coalitions, the Frente de Todos and Juntos por el Cambio, but thanks to them the elections have been hegemonized, especially , those of 2019, where he took 90% of the votes. They somehow replaced bipartisanship with bicoalitionism.
These two coalitions are losing a lot of strength, due to the fact that the leadership is in transition and discussion. Cristina Kirchner is the reference, but she is not an undisputed leadertoday she had to run for vice president for a wealth of votes.
There are actors in the heterogeneous conglomerate who do not agree with its leadership, and the governors look at it from the outside. There is an aggravated disorder because the government has not done well.
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The serious discussion is what the Frente de Todos is today, what is its reason for being and its proposal for these elections.
Something similar happens on the other side. macri he lost the 2019 election, but he took a significant amount of votes to be the one who sits at the head of the tableand the gestures of the last months show that it is not undisputed as in 2015.
Behind this discussion for leadership there are very divergent projects, around what Juntos should do if it comes to government, because Bullrich, Larreta or the radicals, such as Morales or Manes, do not think the same.
We understand that once they are off the stage the situation eases, but among those who remain there is not much communion of ideas either. Therefore, this would destroy that run Macri and Cristina this is relaxed.
Macri and Cristina are not together, which is part of the problem. They will probably have a lot of difficulties to be successful candidates, but Cristina is very current, in fact the absent but present protagonist of the PJ meeting was her. And on the other side, everyone is waiting on the other side if Macri will be a candidate or not.
Rosendo Fraga: “There is a crisis in both majority political spaces”
If they decide to cum, is it resolved?
Suppose they say that they will not be candidates, what remains within the coalitions is still not amalgamated. If you think of a candidacy for kicillofis not the same as one of Masslike Larreta and Bullrich in the other side.
The inmates are settling with a very high level of virulence, that it will be difficult for them to amalgamate that in the STEP, when there is only one winner. The dispute is so fierce and with so much confrontation that it will be very difficult to unite the vote of Together for Change, for example.
If Bullrich loses in the PASO, is your voter closer to voting for Larreta or Milei?
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The growth of the right in Argentina
Alexander Gomel (AG): Is there a possibility of a third way, that something be built above the crack?
there is probably some expression in the center that you are wanting to build Schiaretti with Urtubey, but doesn’t seem to have the strength to build a solid alternative in the middle, even recording what Massa was with De La Sota in 2015, who took 21% of the votes in the general election. I see a lot of fragility in that construction.
We have to look at the 2023 scenario with a different perspective from the one we have been looking at, which is to hope that something will emerge in the middle, because what is most competitive today and challenges the system of the two coalitions came from the extreme right, with Milei.
Javier Milei plays Sergio Massa from 2015, but located in another ideological spectrum, and that pulls the rest of the actors to the right. In fact, Juntos is highly questioned by Milei. For example, Bullrich and Macri put up with her speech a lot, and Larreta feels obliged to a great extent to give a signal to that sector.
There is a shift, product of the emergence of Milei, and that greatly limits the possibility of a competitive candidate emerging from the center that compromises the two coalitions.
Milei is excited about the inmate in Together for Change: “The libertarians on one side and the collectivists on the other”
Milei with true chances? Or as a more testimonial candidate who questions Together for Change?
The polls speak of 15% to 20%, which would be a successful election for someone who started in politics two years ago, and would take a number of legislators to Congress that may end up revealing the eventual majority for the force. that is imposed
today we are watching United Nations Milei Conditioning System, especially in the Province of Buenos Aires. It may be the factor that makes the choice difficult for Together for Change.
The polls do not give Milei a chance in the second round, but he is a candidate who grows when the country’s socioeconomic situation deteriorates. The chances of it will arise from whether inflation falls or continues to rise, whether coalitions continue to quarrel and exhibit disorder, disorganization and lack of common sense in building.
Milei thrives on anger and disappointment, who knows that it is an unfeasible situation but who wants to express his anger. He is still not in a condition, but I would look at him carefully because society is broken in terms of the relationship with the traditional political leadership.
Milei and the radicals, red signals for PRO falconism
The inmate of the ruling party and its candidacies
Within the Frente de Todos, can you imagine Alberto Fernández playing in a PASO against the ministers? Do you think he will cum and appoint someone else?
This has to be discovered, as with the layers of the onion. The first layer is if cristina cumsbecause now there is the “operative cry”.
The second layer is Mass, that eventually it would be the most competitive if it manages to display a certain economic order, that is, that inflation goes down a bit, that the dollar does not rise and that the situation of the reserves stabilizes. The economy is going to allow him to be a candidate or not.
If Massa can’t, let’s go to one PASO eventual candidates with few opportunities, in which the President can probably participate. What Alberto says is that he shows up in case there are low caliber candidates.
MVB JL
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