Clearly there is no single cause of this inexorable drop in the standard of living of Argentines in the last 50 years. It is a complex, multi-causal problem.
The factory of poor people and colored paper It did not stop growing and, instead of the touted social ascent, there is a general decline without brake.
The scenario is that of a central government sitting on the boxes and that of the Provincial governments demanding funds to respond to the needs of the inhabitants of their territories, in many cases true autonomous fiefdoms.
There are the owners of their lands from the reform of 94, with a size of the provincial state totally disproportionate in relation to the resources provided by private activity.
Regulations, controls, all typespermanent changes to the rules of the game and a strong and growing tax burdenit hinders, interrupts and even stops any type of private initiative, the true engine of productive development so essential to any nation that seeks authentic prosperity.
Inflation for the first quarter is around 20%, far from the Government’s goals
The fiscal deficit, the need for financing, the level of country risk that leaves us out of international markets of credit, and our well-earned reputation as “serial defaulters” leads us to monetary issue as the chosen path to cover those clearly inefficient and ineffective State deficits.
This recipe generates the constant devaluation of our malnourished local currencyand it is the cause –drugs- that degenerates into inflation, the true architect of extreme poverty.
Argentina, Confederation of 23 fiefdoms
From the talks that we have had -throughout 2022- with references and advisory specialists from the different political forces, it seems clear that with a new government backed by a majority in the legislative chambers, enough votes could be obtained to sanction laws that allow reorienting the course of our history.
How would you reach a minimum to put a certain brake on this “textbook populism” that bears the seal imposed on the governments of the region from the forum of Sao Paulo. Even so, we doubt that it is really enough for a definitive change…
It’s more! If the republican and democratic expectations that fall on the entire opposition today are not met, it could represent a temporary withdrawal of the current government and its return in four years, strengthened. In that case, the only course for us Argentines who dream of freedom and prosperity would definitely be “Ezeiza”.
playing federal
Following our logic after long talks and debates, it seems that another axis of change is to modify the Coparticipation Law. A modification that ensures a healthy relationship between what each province contributes and needs.
But is that enough? Would this modification –planted between the lines- have an incentive for the fulfillment of development objectives in each territory? How would -justly- reformulate this current extortion system between Central Government and Provincial Governments of “boxes versus territorial votes”?
More than a Federal Republic, Today Argentina seems like a Confederation of 23 fiefdoms “playing” to be republicans. All of them demand funds from the administrator to maintain efficient and inefficient employees, subsidies for various activities of friends of public power, cooperatives, loss-making provincial companies, growing social plans (many of them undeserved, as we have already verified a few months ago).
Feudalism or sustainable development
The result of such a system is the foreseeable shrinking of private activity and the growth of diners who live on a cake that, in the best of cases, maintains its size. Today we know that even that is not maintained…
It is assumed that the opposition is working on a Government Plan. People ask/demand/demand it and it is the permanent question of all journalism specialized in politics and economics. The proposal should project a sustainable development in all the territories as a result of the growth of private activity in each of them. Linked to this, similar efforts should be considered to improve the current income and expense situation.
A Government focused on the Economic Plan, the Reforms (labor and tax, among others) and a Strategic Development Plan for the Country based on the growth potential of each territory (read by region or by provinces) could take advantage of investments in infrastructure to generate the conditions that facilitate productive private work; investments that will become common currency once a clear course has been demonstrated, with corresponding planning and follow-up.
a republican argentinian
For all these reasons, we distinguish two central objectives: an efficient State (beyond its size, beyond its internal “culture”) and the development of private activity with a view to prosperity of ALL Argentines.
The big question is whether a Plan of these characteristics is underway. From the talks held with some leaders of the main opposition coalition, unfortunately we interpret that there is a virtual divorce between the central government plan and the territorial plans that takes place in the orbit of the provincial candidates.
In other words, what to date is “sold” as a Plan does not contemplate provincial plans, making it impossible to set sustainable and agreed goals at the territorial level, much less explain to the population the impact that the measures and laws that are approved they will have in each locality.
Does co-participation work as a tool to help the poorest provinces?
From the point of view of a systemic and systematic analysis, the causes of the disintegration of the Republic are deepened.
In our opinion, without a Integral plan that contemplates the economy, the reforms, the strategic axes of growth and the territories it is impossible to design a Law of Co-participation that satisfies the parties. Let alone a sustainable budget.
Candidates for the highest executive position I will have to work with integrated teams at the national and provincial level that represent your space. And we insist: you can design a Comprehensive Plan made up of 24 planes -the one from the Central Government and one for each Province- prepared with a systemic vision and prioritizing integration in all stages of the process.
There are only a few months left for the elections. We are in discount time. The Republic and Democracy are at risk. Politicians have their say.
* General Coordinator of CoCoSustentable
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