A hot and dry summer, with a lot of heat, perhaps in the form of new waves. And little rain, especially in the Litoral area and in the province of Buenos Aires, regions where the largest proportion of Argentines live. That’s the central conclusion reached by a dozen weather experts. And the details emerge from the recent Quarterly Climate Forecast report, a document published a few days ago on the website of the National Meteorological Service (NMS), with the technical contributions of its forecasters and specialized researchers who work on this subject at INTA, INA and Conicet, among other scientific institutions. The report basically forecasts a high probability that we will have a long-suffering summer of 2022-2023, starting next week.
“The first thing that is worth clarifying is that we are still, for the third consecutive year (since 2020), under the influence of the regional climatic phenomenon known as ‘La Niña’, which still dominates the circulation of air masses. And ‘La Niña’ favors a drop in rainfall patterns, especially in the north and east of the country,” he told PROFILE Jose Luis Estela, SMN climatologist. In fact, for the provinces of the Litoral and PBA, the forecast suggests a greater probability of receiving less millimeters of rain than usual: on the map published in the report it reads “lower than normal” or close to that value.
“We expect many days with high temperatures,” says one of the specialists consulted
“In other words, we believe that the best chance is that the summer months will continue to be deficient in terms of rainfall. As we move towards the west of the country, the conditions improve and we reach the Cuyo region with a probability of normal and even higher rainfall”, Stella. But ask: “Although we’ve also been seeing the timing of the start of the rainy season in that region have been getting pushed back over the years.”
As for the Andean Patagonia, which forests usually suffer fires associated with drought, do not have good prospects for this summer, since the older meteorological calculation probably assigns “normal or lower than normal rainfall conditions.”
temperatures. “Together with my colleague Soledad Collazo we specialize in probabilistic forecasts of extreme temperatures. This is the increase in maximum and minimum temperatures, ”she explained to her. PROFILE Matilde Rusticucci, Conicet researcher and member of the group of specialists responsible for the report. “And what we find for the next three months, for the entire country, is a high probability of having very high maximum temperatures, but also very high minimum temperatures. In other words, beyond the average temperature, we expect many days with high and persistent temperatures that far above average. And also minimum temperatures that do not drop too much at night and are above average.” Something that, remind the experts, spawn many times difficulties at the time of good rest night.
Rusticucci explained that to calculate the likely of temperature ranges for the next 90 days, maximum and minimum data are taken as a basis and various factors are analyzed through complex mathematical models. Then, the conclusions are compared with the temperatures of the last three decades and the most probable trend for the quarter is established.
“According to our Forecast of temperature extremes, there is a probability of a greater occurrence of warm extremes of the maximum temperature in the entire study region –which covers the center and north of the country–, with the exception of a part of San Juan and the north of Jujuy”, said the researcher. And she added: “This forecast gives a high probability of having extreme maximum temperatures and high minimum temperatures. I mean, very hot. This means that although in some cases the increase in the average may not be so significant, we are going to have days with highs and lows that are much higher than normal”.
“We believe that the next three months will be deficient in rainfall”
Experts warn that “these probabilistic analysis They are made for three months and what they register is the possible apartment of the historical values in the different geographical areas”, explained Stella. In other words, they serve to forecast trends and are useful for making short-term decisions. And she concluded: “To have greater precision regarding what will happen to the weather in periods of days, The recommendation is to pay attention to the weekly forecasts and the alerts issued periodically by groups of specialized researchers, such as INTA and SMN”.
The heat of climate change
Is this phenomenon of temperatures and low rainfall related to Climate Change (CC)? “CC generates consequences such as increases in temperature throughout the planet and this is especially manifested in the form of extreme events, both in terms of temperature and rainfall patterns. In fact, it is increasingly common for us to exceed the average thresholds”, explained Matilde Rusticucci, a Conicet researcher. And although what begins promptly in the Argentine summer cannot be attributed directly to climate change, “we are in a framework of trends in which temperatures are increasing more and more and faster.” On the other hand, the expert recorded that in recent times, year after year, various temperature records have been broken, either by absolute value or by average. “For example, in 2021, in the City of Buenos Aires the historical temperature record for the month of October was broken, registering 35.7°. This year we had another record, but for November. It was, in fact, one of the most intense heat waves recorded in Argentina in at least 60 years.
You may also like
