In February 2022, the President of Russia appeared to the world with his “Special Military Operation”, a euphemism for his decision to invade Ukraine, contrary to expert forecasts. The conflict has experienced ups and downs since then, with periods of escalating violence and others of relative calm. The Donetsk and Lugansk regions of eastern Ukraine remain the epicenter of the conflict, with Russian-backed separatist forces controlling significant parts of these regions. Throughout the conflict there have been numerous rounds of negotiations and dialogues facilitated by the participation of international mediators between Ukraine, Russia and the separatist parties. However, the talks have not reached a definitive resolution and the positions remain divergent.
The conflict has had a significant impact on the civilian population, with a high number of internally displaced persons and a complex humanitarian situation. Lack of access to basic services, destruction of infrastructure, and economic difficulties have contributed to the difficulties faced by affected communities. In turn, the international community has imposed sanctions on Russia. However, they have not yet reached a definitive solution.
The conflict remains a challenge for stability and peace in the region, and its complete resolution remains an elusive goal. In this sense, the challenges for peace in Eastern Europe depend on at least four factors.
First, the military capacity and resources of both sides. The quality and quantity of armed forces, the weapons systems used, and access to strategic resources can determine the balance of power and a party’s ability to conduct offensive or defensive operations. In this sense, we must pay attention to the announcement made by the Ukrainian president Volodimir Zelenski about a significant landing of weapons provided by his country’s allies.
It can be seen, then, that the support that Ukraine receives from the international community, both in diplomatic and military terms, can affect the country’s defense capacity and its ability to resist aggression. Alliances and military assistance agreements can play an important role in the balance of power. Likewise, the political will and support of the population both in Ukraine and in Russia can influence the duration and outcome of the conflict. Internal political stability, national unity and popular support can determine the resistance and definition of the actors involved.
Finally, the actions and decisions of political and diplomatic actors, both nationally and internationally, can have a significant impact on the course of warfare. The news, unfortunately, is not optimistic in this field, after Russia refused to consider the plan that Ukraine recently emerged.
On May 18, at the Torcuato Di Tella University, an international conference open to the public will be held with the presence of local and international experts to discuss the current situation and the challenges ahead. The latter consist of how to establish a lasting ceasefire agreement that is respected by both parties since throughout the conflict several ceasefire agreements have been reached, but many of them have been violated and have not led to peace. sustainable. Also, it will be necessary to resolve the political and administrative status of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. In turn, the presence of Russian troops in Ukraine, as well as Russian-backed separatist groups, has complicated the situation and hampered peace efforts. The withdrawal of all foreign forces and the restoration of Ukraine’s sovereignty on its territory are major challenges to achieving peace. Finally, the reconstruction of the affected areas, as well as the reconciliation between the divided communities, are essential challenges to advance towards the resolution of the conflict.
*Director of the Degrees in Political Science and Government and International Studies at Torcuato Di Tella University (UTDT).
You may also like
